New Model Determines Space Weather, Helps Satellites

Contact: Lia Unrau
Phone: (713) 831-4793

NEW MODEL DETERMINES SPACE WEATHER, HELPS SATELLITES

A Rice University computer model that
determines the weather in space, the first of its kind, was recently
installed at the Air Force Space Forecast Center at Falcon Air Force
Base near Colorado Springs, Colo.

The model assists operators with the management of navigation,
communication and surveillance satellites. The Magnetospheric
Specification Model, or MSM, provides the Air Force with the first
objective capability to specify the environment of a satellite
exhibiting anomalous behavior.

The MSM is the first of two models Rice developed for the Air
Force. The MSM provides information on the current state of space
weather, called nowcasting. A second model delivered but not yet
installed provides some space weather forecast capability.

Space weather refers to activity in the region of space
surrounding Earth, often giant space storms that bombard satellites
and the Earth’s upper atmosphere with energetic charged particles.
These storms are capable of damaging orbiting satellites and can
occasionally create problems for ground-based systems, such as
electric power grids, cables, and oil and gas pipelines. The outflow
of gases from flares and prominences on the Sun produces the storms.

Normally the only visible manifestation of this activity from
Earth is the intensification of the northern (and southern) lights
seen at high latitudes. However, these storms create a hostile and
even hazardous environment for the valuable orbiting spacecraft. In
1994 a Canadian communication satellite valued at more than $200
million was destroyed by one such storm and in 1989 a giant
geomagnetic storm caused a power blackout over much of Eastern
Canada, leaving a million people without power for many hours and
resulting in extensive equipment repair costs.

The role of the Rice models is to provide satellite operators
with a determination of the conditions in space. The MSM uses input
data from monitoring satellites and ground-based magnetic
observatories to compute the conditions near other satellites.

Operators are then able to better manage the satellite operations.

“The program we developed tells the Air Force where storms are
currently occuring, and we are working to make models to predict
when storms will occur, so we can warn power companies when a
problem may arise,” said John Freeman, professor of space physics
and astronomy.

The goal is to have a multiagency cooperative service to predict
space weather analogous to the National Weather Service, Freeman
said.

The space weather models have been developed by members of the
Department of Space Physics and Astronomy including Freeman and Dick
Wolf, professor of space physics and astronomy; Bob Spiro, research
scientist; Bonnie Hausman, programmer analyst; Bryan Bales, system
analyst; and present and former graduate students Bob Hilmer, Rick Lambour, Akira Nagai and Kirt Costello. Several undergraduates also
contributed to the project.

The development of the models is sponsored by the Phillips
Laboratory at Hanscom Air Force Base, Mass., and the Air Force Air
Weather Service.

###