Report: Future climate change to challenge Texas, Gulf region

CONTACT: Lia Unrau
PHONE:
(713) 348-6778
EMAIL: unrau@rice.edu

REPORT: FUTURE
CLIMATE CHANGE TO CHALLENGE TEXAS, GULF REGION
Scientists Predict Region
Will Become Warmer, Threatening Ecology, Economics

A team of top university
and government scientists studying climate change in the Texas and Gulf Coast
region found that warmer temperatures and an increase in the rate of sea-level
rise are expected over the next 50 to 100 years.

The higher summer
temperatures — up by 3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit — and a projected sea-level rise
ranging from more than 8 to almost 20 inches are expected to result in more
extreme rainfall events, longer dry periods and challenges to Texas’s fresh
water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and even human
health.

Ten regional experts
from Texas, Louisiana and Florida outline their findings in a report,
“Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region: Prospects for Sustaining
Our Ecological Heritage,” published by the Ecological Society of America (ESA)
and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The research was conducted over a
one-year period and was funded by the UCS and the ESA.

“The goal of our report
is to let people in Texas know that climate change is real with potentially
serious effects on our environment,” said Evan Siemann, co-author and assistant
professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Rice University. “We detail
possible consequences for our state and suggest steps that can be taken to
minimize these changes and reduce their impacts.”

Although there is a
great deal of uncertainty about whether the future of the
Texas-Louisiana-Florida coastal region will be wetter or drier, both climate
change models predict warmer weather and a rise in sea level, resulting in an
invasion of salt water into freshwater regions.

“A key finding is that
increasing demand for freshwater resources that may become less abundant will
pose new challenges to a region that is accustomed to sufficient water to meet
competing demands of agriculture, industry, urban areas and natural systems,”
Siemann said. “Taking steps to protect our resources today will help safeguard
our region’s economy and natural heritage.”

In addition to rises in
temperature and sea level, the report’s key findings
include:

• 
  
  Rainfall and soil
  moisture are likely to increase in the coastal regions of Texas, except for a
  portion of the South Texas coast. In inland areas, models conflict as to whether
  conditions will be wetter or drier. Drought will increase the risk of wildfires,
  and savannas and grasslands will expand at the expense of forests.
  
  
• 
  
  Hurricane intensity
  could increase slightly with global warming, although changes in storm frequency
  are uncertain. Damages from coastal flooding, storm surge and soil erosion will
  increase as sea level rises.
  
  
• 
  
  Population growth and
  land development, leading to increased human use of water resources, will
  compound changes in climate.
  
  
• 
  
  A hotter, drier
  climate is likely to result in an increase in the concentration of air
  pollutants in Houston and Galveston, affecting respiratory health, and more
  frequent heat waves, affecting heat-related illnesses and deaths.
  
  
• 
  
  Changes in temperature
  and rainfall will tend to allow invasive tropical plants and animals to move
  northward, possibly putting native plant and animal species at risk and
  resulting in an altered food web.

“Our natural and managed
ecosystems are among the most productive and valuable in the country,” said
Siemann, a specialist in the interactions of forest, grassland and insect
species along the Texas coast. “Our findings suggest that these ecosystems are
also unusually vulnerable to changes in climate. Increased invasions by
introduced species and increased pest impacts are two factors that are likely to
increase disproportionately in our region in the future.”

Some of the report’s
suggestions for addressing the challenges include mitigating global warming by
curbing greenhouse gas emissions, engaging in wise land-use practices to
minimize destruction of ecosystems, and adopting proactive methods of monitoring
data and periodically reviewing decisions.

Robert Twilley of the
University of Louisiana-Lafayette led the research team. Siemann was one of two
Texas research authors; the other is Roger Zimmerman of the National Marine
Fisheries Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Association