Preliminary report: Future quakes in Pakistan inevitable

Preliminary report: Future quakes in Pakistan inevitable

BY JADE BOYD
Rice News staff

A preliminary report on damage and rebuilding needs after the massive 7.6 earthquake that killed more than 85,000 in Kashmir in October found that the region is vulnerable to even larger, more devastating quakes.

Ahmad Durrani

The stark findings drive home the reality that buildings, bridges and other infrastructure must be rebuilt with future quakes in mind, said Ahmad Durrani, professor of civil and environmental engineering.

Durrani, an expert in design and construction of earthquake-resistant buildings, led a five-person team of quake experts on an 11-day tour of Kashmir in early November. The group, which included experts from the Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Research Center at the University of Illinois–Urbana-Champaign, issued preliminary findings in December.

The team is also working with U.S. and Pakistani governments to develop sound rebuilding strategies for the region.

“After reviewing the data, we are convinced that the biggest earthquakes in the region are yet to come,” said Amr Elnashai, director of MAE, citing theoretical studies that suggest a high probability of several earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the future.

Durrani said either Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf or Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz is expected to attend the opening of a three-day workshop on long-term earthquake preparedness March 1 in Islamabad. Funded by the National Science Foundation, the workshop will bring together leading researchers from Pakistan and the U.S.

“We are still compiling the data from our visit, but there is clearly a need for rigorous redesign and reconstruction criteria that both takes advantage of available technologies and adapts them to the realities and circumstances of Pakistan,” Durrani said.

The group’s preliminary report, “Kashmir Earthquake Quicklook,” is available online at <http://mae.cee.uiuc.edu/Archive/story/Pakistan2005/The_Kashmir_Earthquake.pdf>.