Iraq Study Group calls for a new strategy

Baker-sponsored group releases report
Iraq Study Group calls for a new strategy

BY FRANZ BROTZEN
Rice News staff

The Iraq Study Group’s much-anticipated report, released Wednesday, calls for a two-pronged approach to improve the situation in Iraq — enhanced diplomatic efforts in the region and widespread reforms by the Iraqi government — that could lead to the withdrawal of most U.S. combat forces from Iraq by 2008, although it stops short of setting any deadlines.

Rice’s James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy is one of the sponsoring organizations of the Iraq Study Group (ISG), which is headed by former U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former Indiana Congressman Lee Hamilton. Baker is honorary chairman of the Baker Institute. The Baker Institute’s director, Edward Djerejian, served as a senior adviser to the study group.

”Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy has played an important role in the Iraq Study Group, whose mandate from Congress is to provide a ‘fresh eyes’ assessment of the situation in Iraq and to provide the president and the Congress with policy recommendations on the way forward,” Djerejian explained. In addition to the Baker Institute, sponsoring organizations include The United States Institute for Peace, The Center For Strategic and International Studies and the Center for the Study of the Presidency.

Many in Washington — and around the world — have been looking forward to the ISG report, hoping its proposals will lead to an end to the increasingly unpopular war. The November elections, which resulted in a Democratic takeover in both the House and Senate, were widely seen as a vote of no confidence in the Bush administration’s conduct of the war.

The report described the situation in Iraq as ”grave and deteriorating” and said, ”Pessimism is pervasive.”  However, the ISG argued that if its recommendations are fully adopted, ”Iraqis will have an opportunity for a better future, terrorism will be dealt a blow, stability will be enhanced in an important part of the world, and America’s credibility, interests and values will be protected.”

The ISG’s advice on the level of the U.S. military deployment in Iraq was the report’s most anticipated element. The group considered, and then rejected, a list of options for the U.S.: precipitate withdrawal, staying the course, more troops for Iraq, and devolution to three regions.

Instead, the  report recommended altering external and internal policies that could result in a smaller U.S. military presence in Iraq. But it included several conditions. For instance, it warned that ”unexpected developments” could force U.S. commanders to re-evaluate any withdrawal schedule. And it said, ”It is clear that the Iraqi government will need assistance from the United States for some time to come, especially in carrying out security responsibilities.”

However, the report cautioned, ”The United States must not make an open-ended commitment to keep large numbers of American troops deployed in Iraq.”

As part of its call for a transition from a combat role for U.S. forces to a support role, the ISG’s report recommends an increase in U.S. trainers to help build up the Iraqi military and police.

The study group also sets a number of ”milestones” for the Iraqi government aimed at achieving national reconciliation. ”U.S. forces,” it said, ”can help provide stability for a time to enable Iraqi leaders to negotiate political solutions, but they cannot stop the violence — or even contain it — if there is no underlying political agreement among Iraqis about the future of their country.” 

The report holds out the option of U.S. pressure on Iraqi authorities if they fail to adopt the recommended reforms. ”If the Iraqi government does not make substantial progress toward the achievement of milestones on national reconciliation, security and governance,” it suggested, ”the United States should reduce its political, military or economic support for the Iraqi government.”

A key element in halting Iraq’s decline, the report maintained, is for Washington to open a dialogue with Damascus and Tehran. A ”new diplomatic offensive,” it said, ”should include every country that has an interest in averting a chaotic Iraq, including all of Iraq’s neighbors — Iran and Syria among them.” Despite their differences, the report continued, Iraq’s neighbors ”all share an interest in avoiding the horrific consequences that would flow from a chaotic Iraq, particularly a humanitarian catastrophe and regional destabilization.”

To assure Iraq’s neighbors, as well as the people of Iraq, of the United States’ good intentions, the report urges President George W. Bush to ”state that the United States does not seek permanent military bases in Iraq.” Furthermore, it said, ”The President should restate that the United States does not seek to control Iraq’s oil.”

Some have expressed concern that President Bush might ignore the ISG’s recommendations. At the Dec. 6 news conference in Washington, Baker said, ”If we do what we recommend in this report, it will certainly improve our chances for success.”

The Iraq Study Group came together last March at the urging of Congress, which was looking for an independent account of the situation in Iraq as well as bipartisan suggestions for policy changes for the future. In addition to Baker and Hamilton, the members of the ISG included four Republicans: retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, former Attorney General Edwin Meese and former Wyoming Sen. Alan Simpson; and four Democrats: former Clinton aide Leon Panetta, lobbyist Vernon Jordan, former Defense Secretary William Perry and former Virginia Sen. Charles Robb.

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was originally a member of the group, but bowed out in May. He was replaced by Meese. Also, Robert Gates resigned from the group last month after being named to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense. Eagleburger replaced him.

Djerejian, who co-authored the report, said, ”It is our hope that this report will provide the basis for a bipartisan consensus in our country on a way forward in Iraq and the Middle East region as a whole.”