Calvin lecture offers insight into global warming

Calvin lecture offers insight into global warming

BY ANNE LUPTON
Special to the Rice News

Theoretical neurobiologist William H. Calvin outlined the impact of excess carbon dioxide on the world in a lecture titled “How to Treat Global Fever:  An Intelligence Test for Our Times” at Rice Nov. 29. 

WILLIAM CALVIN

His talk was part of the Rice University President’s Lecture Series.
“We’ve already been living with major climate change over the last 50 years,” said Calvin, author of the  upcoming book “Global Fever: How to Treat Climate Change.” Major wildfires, caused by higher temperatures, and flooding increased substantially across the globe during 1950-2000, while global drought has increased since the 1982 El Nino.  Oceans have been warming as well.

An affiliate professor emeritus at the University of Washington in Seattle, Calvin cautioned a 1-2 degrees Celsius warming beyond the 1951-1980 average would have dire consequences.  As the average temperature rises, chunks of Greenland’s ice slides into the ocean, instantly raising sea level.  According to Calvin, this ice stream advances 30-40 meters daily, twice as fast as a decade ago.

While scientists are not sure how quickly the sea level will rise as the temperature increases, Calvin noted a six-meter rise would produce millions of climate refugees in the U.S alone, particularly along the Gulf and East Coasts.  Seventy-five million people live in the Washington, D.C.-Boston corridor, and such a rise would have a devastating impact on them.  “The White House would become waterfront property,” he said.

There has been a steady increase in CO2 since 1958, and now the world has an excess of CO2..  “It is fossil fuel uses that have gotten us into this trouble,” he said.  For example, fossil fuels provide 68 percent of U.S. electricity sources. 

Per-capita consumption of electricity in the U.S. has tripled since 1960, with the exception of California, which has kept electricity use per person down to 1970s levels.  “Governmental policies matter,” said Calvin.  “One of our jobs is to learn from previous experiences.”

In addition to reducing emissions, Calvin suggested excess carbon dioxide must be taken out of circulation.

“But the real problem is time,” he said.  “While the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says something must be done, their reports treat the climate as if it moves in a stately manner, like a tortoise.  This is not a safe assumption.”

Abrupt changes in the climate are possible.  If an intense El Nino lasted two years instead of one, rain forests would become very dry and fires would reduce the forests even further.  “Such a ‘big burn’ would result in a 40 percent increase in excess CO2,” said Calvin.

The IPCC indicates a 10-year window for effective action exists.  Calvin suggested three existing technologies could help: using plug-in hybrid cars so supertankers can be retired, building enough nuclear and geothermal power plants to retire old coal plants and subsidizing countries to encourage them to drill deep geothermal wells instead of using coal or oil.

“If we can reverse growth in carbon emissions before 2020, we can keep the temperature increase below 2 degrees Celcius,” said Calvin.