Rice researchers model growth of Texas’ power systems

Rice researchers model growth of Texas’ power systems

BY FRANZ BROTZEN
Rice News staff

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Four Rice University researchers have finished a report examining the economic, environmental and reliability aspects of expanding power systems. They used Texas as a test case since it is predicted to experience more growth in consumption and generating capacity than any other state in the next 20 years.

The project, titled ”Integrated Economic, Environmental and Reliability Modeling of Power System Growth,” was funded by Rice’s Shell Center for Sustainability (SCS). The objective was to develop and apply linked state‐of‐the‐art models that describe complex power systems, electricity supply and demand in a deregulated market, the functioning and reliability of transmission systems, and the impacts of power plant emissions on air quality and health.

The report’s authors were Daniel Cohan, assistant professor in civil and environmental engineering; Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio, assistant professor in civil and environmental engineering; Peter Hartley, the George and Cynthia Mitchell Family Chair in Sustainable Development, academic director for the SCS and professor of economics; and Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and adjunct professor of economics. Nationally, the team noted that a projected 40 percent increase in electricity consumption by 2030, coupled with the retirement of many older power plants, could result in the construction of new power generation facilities equivalent to almost half of the U.S.’s current capacity.

The electric transmission grid, already strained in some places by current loads, will require additional construction to accommodate this growth while maintaining reliability and efficiency, they wrote. The construction of new generation and transmission capacity involves large capital investments. To make these investments appropriately requires an integrated assessment of their impacts on affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity production.

At a time when many U.S. cities are struggling to meet federal air quality standards and climate change is attracting heightened concern, the need for new power plants can be problematic. These new power plants represent new sources of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. New plants also provide an opportunity to adopt cleaner and more efficient technologies. The siting, design and environmental performance of new power plants, along with actions to improve existing plants or curb demand growth, will critically affect environmental sustainability, energy reliability and economic growth.

The project received support from the Baker Institute, as well as from the SCS.

The SCS project analyzes specific growth in power systems, along with the economic, environmental and reliability aspects of power systems. To download the report, go to http://media.rice.edu/images/media/Electricity_final_report-Cohan.pdf.