Rice-run poll: Brown ahead in Houston mayoral election

FRANZ BROTZEN
Rice News staff

City Councilman Peter Brown has surged ahead of his three main rivals in Houston’s mayoral contest, according to a poll released this week by Rice University’s Center for Civic Engagement.

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Brown’s support rose from 10 percent in an August poll to 24 percent in the new survey. Support for two other candidates, City Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Locke, remained steady. Parker received 16 percent in August and 16 percent this week; Locke’s support was unchanged at 14 percent in both polls. Harris County Department of Education Trustee Roy Morales’ support plummeted from 13 percent to 5 percent.

One of the few bright spots for Brown’s rivals is that poll respondents backing Brown do not express deep support for him. Only 59 percent described their support for Brown as strong; more then 40 percent said it was not strong. Parker and Locke supporters, by contrast, were more likely to express strong support for their candidate. More than 69 percent of Locke supporters called their support strong, while 73 percent of Parker supporters called their support strong.

Robert Stein, Rice’s Lena Gohlman Fox Professor of Political Science, who oversaw the poll, characterized Brown’s support as “tepid” and explained that Brown has a breadth of support but lacks depth.

Stein said Brown has outspent his opponents two to one over the past two months.

Since the three leading candidates generally agree on the issues, Stein added, the race has come down to personality. “This is a campaign not about issues,” he said, “but about characteristics, experience, competence and name ID.”

Respondents citing “competence” as the main reason they are supporting a particular candidate favored Brown (15 percent) over Parker (8 percent) and Locke (7 percent). Similarly, among those citing “leadership,” Brown (16 percent) led Parker (11 percent) and Locke (9 percent). However, those choosing “previous experience” as the main reason picked Parker (39 percent) and Locke (31 percent) over Brown (13 percent).

Roughly one half of each candidate’s supporters cited competence, leadership and experience as the main reasons for their support. By way of contrast, less than a quarter cited any issue (like traffic, taxes, the economy or the environment). The only issue that cracked 10 percent was crime and drugs, which 11 percent of Locke’s supporters, 10 percent of Brown’s supporters and 7 percent of Parker’s supporters called the most important reason for their support.

The election is Nov. 3.

The poll data can be viewed at http://ccrd.rice.edu/Mayor-2009/.

The survey is based on interviews with 545 registered voters in the city of Houston between Oct. 15 and 21. The University of Houston Center for Public Policy Survey Research Institute assisted with the research.

The poll has an error rate of plus or minus 4.14 percent.