Rice-run poll: Parker, Locke in close race ahead of Houston mayoral election

BY FRANZ BROTZEN
Rice News staff

In the last poll conducted by Rice University’s Center for Civic Engagement before the Dec. 12 runoff election, the two candidates for Houston mayor are running neck and neck, with turnout expected to determine the outcome.

City Controller Annise Parker ’78 leads former City Attorney Gene Locke 37 percent to 34 percent — within the study’s margin of error. Twenty-one percent of polled registered voters said they don’t know whom they will support, and 8 percent refused to answer. Robert Stein, Rice’s Lena Gohlman Fox Professor of Political Science, who oversaw the poll, called the results a “statistical dead heat.”

	ROBERT STEIN

Parker and Locke emerged from the Nov. 3 first-round election after overtaking City Councilman Peter Brown. Harris County Department of Education Trustee Roy Morales (the only Republican in the contest) placed fourth. One of the questions that will be answered Dec. 12 is who will win over Brown’s and Morales’ supporters.

According to the Rice poll, Parker is receiving the bulk of Brown’s voters — 45.5 percent to 38.2 percent for Locke. On the other hand, 30.6 percent of Morales’ voters said they favor Locke, compared with 16.3 percent who favor Parker. Forty-nine percent said they don’t know. With no Republican left in the race, those undecided Morales supporters could be decisive, Stein said.

The other question revolves around turnout. The lower the turnout, the better for Parker, he said, since Parker’s core supporters are very likely to go to the polls and Locke’s are less loyal. The key for Locke, Stein said, is to convince his supporters to vote — especially at the early voting centers.

Locke is leading among African-American voters with 57 percent of respondents to Parker’s 18.3 percent. But the obvious question is why the African-American candidate has only 57 percent, Stein said. Parker leads among white (48.8 percent to 25 percent) and Latino (47.4 percent to 24.6 percent) voters, the survey found.

Despite being the female candidate in the race, Parker does not do particularly well with women voters, the study showed. She has the support of 37.4 percent of female respondents, compared with 34.1 percent for Locke.

The poll data can be viewed at http://ccrd.rice.edu/Mayor-2009/.

The survey is based on interviews with 500 registered voters in the city of Houston between Nov. 15 and 18. The University of Houston Center for Public Policy Survey Research Institute assisted with the research.

The poll has an error rate of plus or minus 4.4 percent.