Rice political scientists available to discuss 2014 election

Rice University Office of Public Affairs / News & Media Relations EXPERT ALERT Amy Hodges 713-348-6777 amy.hodges@rice.edu

Rice political scientists available to discuss 2014 election

HOUSTON – (Oct. 31, 2014) – As Election Day approaches, Rice University political scientists Mark Jones, Paul Brace and Bob Stein are available to comment on expected outcomes in the Lone Star State and the possible shake-up in the U.S. Senate.

Jones, chair of Rice’s Political Science Department and a fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said the only question in the Texas governor’s race is the margin of victory for Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott.

“On Nov. 4, Greg Abbott will be elected the next governor of Texas,” Jones said. “The only uncertainty revolves around whether or not he will defeat Wendy Davis by more than 12.7 percentage points (Rick Perry’s margin over Democrat Bill White in 2010).”

Jones said that if Davis is able to exceed current expectations and hold Abbott to a margin of victory in the single digits, it could still mean a “win” for Texas Democrats.

“This ‘political’ victory could create a virtuous circle for Texas Democrats over the next four years of enthusiasm, participation, fundraising success and higher-quality candidates,” Jones said. “In contrast, if Davis does poorly, such as losing to Abbott by 13 percent or more, it will likely reinforce a vicious circle for Texas Democrats of apathy, abstention, fundraising woes and lower-quality candidates.”

Jones said that all of the GOP statewide candidates are “locks for victory” on Nov. 4, with only a handful of congressional and state legislative contests actually in play — most notable of which are Congressional District 23 and Senate District 10.

Brace, the Clarence L. Carter Professor of Political Science at Rice, said the “stars are aligned” this year for the GOP.

“Many general features of midterm elections and particular features of the context of election 2014 indicate the Republicans should have a good year,” Brace said. “There is a much smaller electorate in midterm elections (40 percent of eligible citizens) than in presidential elections (60 percent), which constitutes a Republican advantage this campaign year, given the turnout advantage normally enjoyed by the GOP.”

Brace also noted that midterm elections almost always produce losses for the president’s party in congressional and state elections. 

“Those losses are magnified when the president’s approval rating is closer to 40 than 50 percent and the public feels pessimistic about the state of the economy and the future of the country,” he said.

Stein, the Lena Gohlman Fox Professor of Political Science and a fellow in urban politics at Rice’s Baker Institute, is available to discuss local, state and national races, particularly those in Colorado, Wisconsin, Kansas and North Carolina. Just this week, Stein completed a statewide pre-election survey in Texas and Harris County.

Jones is a leading expert on Texas politics and has been quoted nationally about the 2014 race for Texas governor and other down-ballot races. He has also authored guest columns on these topics in Texas Monthly and the Texas Tribune.

Brace, an expert on American politics, is co-author of “Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and the Modern Presidents,” author of “State Government and Economic Performance” and co-editor of “The Presidency in American Politics” and “American State and Local Politics.” He has published research in the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Research Quarterly, Polity, Social Science Quarterly, American Politics Quarterly, Legislative Studies Quarterly and other journals.

Stein is an expert on urban politics, public policy, public opinion polls, voting behavior and electoral politics. His work has also appeared in a wide range of scholarly journals and has been supported by the National Science Foundation. His research interests include the impact of the federal aid system on the electoral trajectories of office holders at both the subnational and congressional levels and collective action among metropolitan area governments and voting behavior. 

Rice University has a VideoLink ReadyCam TV interview studio. ReadyCam is capable of transmitting broadcast-quality standard-definition and high-definition video directly to all news media organizations around the world 24/7.

For more information or to schedule an interview, contact Amy Hodges, senior media relations specialist at Rice, at 713-348-6777 or amy.hodges@rice.edu.

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